Match Data. ESPN feeds fixture data across 44 league surfaces. 60-second refresh on a 7-day forward window catches every upcoming and live match. Window starts yesterday UTC to cover late-US kickoffs.

Market Data. Polymarket gamma-api feeds live H/D/A pricing. Implied probability shown is the outcome triple normalized to 100%.

Structural Intelligence. The Value Momentum Index measures pressure-weighted player production across 9 club leagues and 20 national federations. Production Value, Reliability α, PPM, and top-producer attribution layer around the market price as context — not as a competing probability.

Heat × VMI Overlay. The compound flag fires when an outdoor WC 26 venue projects above 26°C WBGT at kickoff, a CAF-acclimated squad meets a UEFA or CONMEBOL squad with aging center-back pairing, and the fixture is a routine (non-knockout) group-stage match. The underlying study ran 1,856 player-matches through a within-player fixed-effects regression: r = −0.07 at p < 0.01 in routine matches, null in knockouts (r = +0.003).

For Polymarket. Turnstile reads the same markets Polymarket prices. Overseer adds the structural layer — heat, age, acclimation, production — alongside the price. Volume development, not market displacement.